Monday, August 18, 2008

$700m from Oil in the 1st year... hmmm. what should it be used for???

As you all might have heard, Ghana has discovered oil. I am sure you all heard that ages ago. With the way its being trumpeted everywhere, you would think God decided to come spend the year 2008 in Ghana....... Ok.Ok.. its old news, and i know.!!

The "new" news is that government has announced how much they think they would be making from the production of oil over the course of the next few years and what they are intending to do with it all..

Even though prudent planning says that we should plan and know how much we might be getting, do i get the inkling that someone is counting their eggs before they hatch??, and I am also hoping against all that there are no other people behind that "someone", also doing their best to count their $$$ bills before the bills even "drop"; if you get my catch.

Oil for most countries has not been a blessing, but has been a curse since it was found; take Iraq, Nigeria and a few others .... is it due to bad policies, greediness or what?. i would give my own two cents on what i think the direction for our Ghana should be with the oil revenue at the end. but first lemme rant and rave a bit.

Lets once again look at the classic example of the paradox of oil wealth; Nigeria.

Nigeria is estimated to be making $60m a day from crude oil exports. Can anyone give me a fair idea what benefit that has given to this massive country. I think none!!!. it has had no impact on the land that they live in whatsoever. Poverty is rife in Nigeria, and armed groups, making an excuse of the governments mismanagement of the oil wealth, have also tried to get a piece of the cake that is being shared without them. Come on you, who should be sitting aside whilst you "eat" it all yourself. i want my cut, and id get it anyway i can. If i got to pick a gun and say i am protecting an old lady's interest somewhere, so be it.

In Ghana, The government claims that they would equitably distribute the oil wealth amongst the population. My problem is with that word "equitable". How will the equality be measured.

ok.. lets see...., Ashanti take 2mil, Northern because you are bigger than ashanti, take  6mil, accra you are small, take 500k, or what..? what is the plan for this "equitable" distribution of revenue. 

Or is it going to be through handouts??,  or Investments??.

God help us if its handouts, because immediately kojovi in the the east finishes chopping his share, he would say that since ama in ashanti hasnt still finished chopping hers, so then that means ama got more than he did, Mr salaga in the north too will say that his didnt "reach anywhere". 

If it is not in the form of handouts, then how is it going to be distributed; development, investments .....? Roads, Hospitals, Homes, Water...     that for me will be great ..

But........ wait. !!! i am not all of Ghana.

i even heard that a certain ** insert superlative here ** somewhere said that..,  the school feeding programme should be scrapped and the money be used to pay his group of teachers. OH Ghana!!..., so what do you think they would say about oil money then??, even kenkey money they want!!



So then there will definitely come the age old Ghanaian cry.... "there is no money in our pocket ooh. the government is chopping our money". This is because the money will be put into roads and other social amenities. But Ghanaman no go understand. never!!!, he wants to put his hand into his pocket and see cash $$$$. free cash..

Even the number of feeder road that brong ahafo should have more than accra will become an issue.

i think this oil revenue thing is going to be more of a head ache than any of us imagine it will be. Because with all these prayers and saliva that people have given to thanking God for this oil find, all the prayers that have been said and songs that have been sung; do you think that that man is not thinking of his share.

Come on!!; if Mr. man doesnt get his $1 share in his pocket everyday then he would ask for aluta.!!!

By now i am sure that some people have done all the necessary calculations and are thinking of how much they might have to save on fuel in the coming years, since Ghana will be producing oil. if they dont save that much, then government has done something wrong.

All these and more will also give some crazy people the reason to pick up arms and say that THEYare fighting for the people, whilst greasing their own palms and breaking laws with impunity. 

Now i come back to the main question i was asking..., and which i was trying to illustrate a little with all the talk i have done up there. 

How do you think that the oil revenue should be shared.??? 

maybe you are a great mind and have thought out a way to give it out through handouts, or through development; both ideas should have the word "equitable" attached and working somehow, mind you!!.

As for me i think it is time i gave my own laymans ideas. i think that there are only 4 things that the government could do to share this wealth. It would not be equitable, but neither will it be discriminatory.

i think that the government should do these things and do them simultaneously 

 1. Do all in its power to increase the power generation capacity of the country. build coal        plants, nuclear plants, whatever. they should just try to increase the power generation capacity of the country in whichever way possible and extend it all over the country. This can support new industry.

2. they should set up a publicly managed fund, for which a percentage of the oil revenue is put in each day or month and this fund should just be available for providing capital to those who provide feasible business plans to set up industry/companies in the country. It should be a Ghanaian only fund that would be partial to recently graduated university students with great ideas, even though any Ghanaian should be welcome. It should also give more support to those who set up outside the capital City and other big cities.

3. they should try to build a public university in each region to absorb the masses that leave the SSS and encourage the students to be entrepreneurial all throughout their studies and after. The students will also know that if their ideas are good, the fund, stated above will support them realise their dreams.

4. last but definitely not the least; they should try to also build beginner cities in places that they know businesses might not go, to encourage people to relocate to those areas. The UAE is doing that and we can also do that if what we estimate to earn is true. 

this last idea is in no way related to the oil, but i think is a good idea that should have been introduced long ago to encourage investment in other regions of the country. I think that the government should charge different and heavy taxes on companies that have their headquarters located in the capital city, and should give incentives to those that have their headquarters outside the big cities.

Now to bring all my ideas together in a coherent and meaningful way. This is what led me to my ideas. I believe that for industry to grow it needs 3 major things; energy, capital and great minds (ideas). When people with ideas come out of school and know that they can get funding to put their ideas into reality, they would think of better and greater ideas and will not be limited in their scope. this will encourage invention and innovation. When all these industries are springing up and there is enough power to sustain them then they will grow... and just imagine, if just 10% of the students who come out of 10 public universities can start profitable businesses and employ some other university students. can you imagine how many jobs will be available.? can you imagine what that will do to the economy of the country.?

And also by encouraging people who take from the fund and other companies to set up headquarters and facilities outside the big cities, they would be discouraging urban migration, bettering the lot of the rural folk and keeping people closer to their communities. If there is work available in your community why would you come to Accra and sleep in the cold at a bus station.??

i have intentionally said nothing about the old and the current 50+ year old bracket in Ghana. I believe that they should be ready to sacrifice a little for us the young to make a country that they would be proud of. By the way they are the ones who always tell us that we are the future..... :-)

this are just a few of the ideas and thoughts that find themselves into my head everyday, as i go about my daily activities. 

All this has also stemmed from my belief that, no matter how equitable the government would claim to be, there would always be someone who thinks that he is not getting enough. Business and growth are the only ways to get a country's wheels going and i believe that even though these ideas will not solve the problems, the far reaching consequences of their implementation will affect the whole economy.

so i believe that the best way to solve all this "wahala" will be to teach the man how to fish and show him where the fish can be caught, and then leave him to be. If he comes back and says that he is still hungry, then you can tell him that you showed him how to fish and he can go burn the sea if he is hungry :-D. (dont mind me on that one.!!!)

whatever you think of my ideas. just write them in your comments. if you think that they are ingenious (which would make me feel like i am in heaven by the way), if you think that they are stupid :-(, and whatever else you think. just drop a comment after this article.

You can also leave your suggestions and ideas too.

Its a blog, c'mon. everyone is invited........

1 comments:

L A Adjetey said...

Although not a perfect model, Ghana should seek ideas from the Norwegean example. But before dreaming about revenues, Ghana must formulate a practical fiscal policy, remembering that oil wealth is volatile.